Before FB there was Friendster Myspace, before Google there was Yahoo What does that mean for Bitcoin?
Historical precedent shows that the first mover advantage is a myth. Almost ubiquitously the first dominant force in any space is overthrown by a smaller, nimbler, more innovative and agile upstart which is able to iterate far quicker than the incumbent could, avoid all of it’s mistakes while achieving a network effect which rides the coat tails of the trailblazer who has made the revolutionary product appealing to the wider public at large.
In short, the first mover kicks down the doors to a new world but it rarely stays around long enough to dominate
What if the initial Cryptos are only a precursor to the actual innovation that is about to be thrust upon us?
Personally, I think that is the most likely scenario — they are laying the groundwork for massive disruption
Nobody can argue that Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoins stratospheric rise hasn’t brought the potential of the technology to the attention to the wider publics conciousness. Cryptocurrency has been around for nearly a decade before it began to proliferate — but it is still nowhere near gaining acceptance as a form of widespread payment.
That is a problem and something which needs to be solved as simply as Amazon removes the friction from purchasing consumer goods
The Future We are on The Brink of Exploring
The future of everything is in distributed networks where collaborators can act as swarms for mutual self-interest. It’s in a network of users taking the same actions to ensure collective profit from the resulting implications.
Bitcoin mania is exposing vast swathes of the public to crypto who have zero understanding of the innovation. This isn’t a problem, yet
I think the most likely scenario is that some Entreprenuer in a dorm room somewhere is currently working on something which will supplant everything that currently exists.
This is most likely because it is the thing that has already happened multiple times. Students are the most likely developers because they are the ones most affected by the current economic paradigm which they face. Student debt suffocating you? Escape fiat and embody the future you wish to participate in.
What stops a large network of people doing something radical?
We are realising government isn’t essential for the most basic blocks of society. What else isn’t it required for? Internet is disrupting everything. Mobile is enabling this at an unprecedented rate.
It has taken a long time to get to this point, but it feels like crypto is asserting a new equilibrium. Once we realise we don’t need an intermediary to prop up currency — our propensity to trust intermediaries for anything will evaporate.
What’s required then is a method of exchange that enables transactions between individuals — thankfully that is the innovation of the blockchain. Crypto may be the thing that forms the exchange of value, but without the blockchain they would be worthless. At worst, we require a TransferWise like system which enables exchange of tokens without fees. If a system of review which builds trust through the rating of participants this can occur.
So no matter how high the price of BTC rises, we must focus on the actual innovation
If what I surmise is true — distributed networks of individuals acting as swarms of mutual self interest will take over and replace all that we see now.
Web 1.0 gave rise to internet
Web 2.0 gave rise to the giants who dominate it
Web 3.0 is distributed networks that take it back
Crypto is essential component of this third part. It enables participation due to smart contracts and metered payments it enables.
Metered payments are huge
Where Google, Facebook, Amazon and Apple have destroyed innumerable industries, metered payments are a way for the creators of things to be paid without the pain of exchange being required — instead it just happens.
I would happily contribute a tiny fraction of crypto to a creator if I consumed his product online or used his service. Unfortunately right now there is no mechanism to do this outwith payment walls which add friction.
Remove all friction and enable higher frequency transcations
The easiest way to achieve this is through a virtual ‘taxation’. Services will tax your CPU and use it to mine crypto, which will be redistributed to creators based on the duration of you engage with their content. This removes any friction you don’t have to do anything.
Interesting use case is every service you currently use, imagine more privacy, less adds and ownership of all the data you create.
Blockchain is the revolution that will enable this to be created
Crypto is what will enable you to be paid
Companies will emerge that enable the consumption of content without the necessity for users to pay creators or service providers directly. For low CPU usage tasks — watching video, reading articles, social networks, photo sharing, almost every task you undertake online — these services will tax you a % of your CPU usage and use that to mine Crypto which will be distributed to the creator according to how long you spent watching, reading or using what they made.
That is where the next great company will emerge from, enriching creators in a way that rewards their contributions.