How to Become a Billionaire: Why Following Scarcity Will Make you Rich
Business operates in cycles. From one period to the next the thing which identifies the current successful companies are those which recognise and commoditise the things which are most scarce.
These companies disruptively innovate by transforming the current landscape, enabling progress which the subsequent generation then have to irrelatively develop upon.
This resetting of the platform for development occurs when what was previously scarce no longer is meaning obstacles for participation on that level have been eroded by innovation. At this point, the lack of scarcity becomes the moat meaning it is almost impossible to break up a monopoly.
Over the last few decades this has occurred as such:
Technology creation was prohibitively expensive. The thing which was most scarce during this time was money to fund these speculative projects and companies. In order to receive investment, a company had to have a clear route to market with a waiting audience ready to purchase. The emerging technology companies were creating entirely new industries and investors couldn’t foresee the developments that were about to come. As such, investment was almost impossible and innovation was slow.
Notable winners of this period were Microsoft, Oracle, Cisco, Intel, the big systems vendors, and global systems integrators.
Cloud computing eroded the scarcity of finance by reducing the cost for product creation and running. These previous companies had proved technology as an investment and there was an abundance of investment available for these companies. In fact, venture became so easy to get a hold of that it culminated in the.com crash of the early 2000’s where the house of cards came tumbling down
Scarcity shifted to the consumer. Eyeballs were the metric of the day and the businesses which were able to command the most attention won. This gave rise to massive platforms notable Yahoo! And Google.
This era is marked by the replacement of incumbents. Because the costs to participate had eroded significantly, companies could ‘clone’ a product that already existed but improve on it by at least an order magnitude and unseats the incumbent. You begin to see this emerge with Friendster being replaced by Facebook.
Mobile devices become ubiquitous and scarcity is no longer unfettered attention. The scarcity of the day is relevance and engagement. With a sea of competing companies acquiring, achieving and maintaining attention becomes the commodity of companies.
Services are the new business of the day to exploit the shift in scarcity. The metric for success is the number of engaged and active consumers whom regularly utilise the service.
Companies such as Amazon, Uber, Airbnb, and Netflix are the winners of the Day, with Instagram, Snapchat, Twitter and of course Facebook emerging as the platforms which dominate our daily lives
We are already beginning to see a pattern emerge with the dominant businesses in the world — diversity. The scarcity of the day has shifted from unfettered commitment to distributed services to an aggregated model of conglomerates offering a multitude of services instead of focusing on one speciality.
What we are witnessing is a paradigm shift in the purpose of tech companies. Where they initially focussed on products they are increasingly focusing on softer problems.
Authentic sustainable engagement will become the new scarce ingredient. The as-a-service model is already expanding to offer a more personalised system tailored to your specific life interests and this will gather pace.
Education, health, personal development, family relationships, wealth management, safety and security are the things these companies will commoditise and improve. As tech prices lower, the things that become important are interpersonal communications and personal health. The logical step from there is if companies are taking care of all of these things for us, when will a virtual governance emerge?
If we are paid in Cryptocurrency for our services, which are not taxed, we can purchase goods with them and instead voluntarily join a virtual government that looks after all our needs. We can choose which political ideology we ascribe to and follow it. If we believe in universal basic income, we can pursue that avenue, same goes for free healthcare.
Machine learning and AI will revolutionise this period by enabling companies to work more efficiently to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes. They will be able to offer a better service, personalised to you, at a far lower cost.
Setting yourself up to win
It’s easy to assume that the worlds low hanging fruits have all been picked, the reality couldn’t be further from the truth.
Education, health, personal development, family relationships, wealth management, safety and security are things which affect us everyday but often the are the things that we neglect the most. Focus on the things which improve your own life most significantly and imagine products that could alleviate the burden or obstacles that currently prevent you pursuing them
As time becomes the thing which is most scarce to us, the things which save us it are the things which will become widely adopted. More than that though, products must be created which improve the quality of life we experience
What do you neglect most?
What give you the most happiness?
at the intersection of those two points is the product you should be focusing on.